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As the world gears up for what has been touted by The Economist as “the biggest election year in history”, with a staggering 76 countries set to hold elections, the implications for media freedom loom large. Here are six key elections that will likely have a major impact on media freedom, some of them with clear implications for independent media in Europe.

US Presidential Elections: Will Trump Make a Comeback?

The upcoming US presidential elections pose the pivotal question: Will Donald Trump stage a return to the White House? Amidst the challenge of winning the Republican primaries, polls indicate a favorable chance for Trump. If he emerges victorious, concerns arise over a potential surge in disinformation, smear campaigns against the media, and cuts in funding for independent media. These issues could impact global perceptions and bolster populist leaders worldwide. According to data collected by the Media and Journalism Research Center, Trump’s return to power is likely to have a significant impact on the funds of American development agencies dedicated to supporting media and journalism, which are active in many European countries.

European Parliament: Rise of the Populist Far-Right

In early June, citizens of the 27 EU Member States will cast their votes for the European Parliament. The pressing question is whether the rise of far-right parties in certain countries will reverberate within the EU elections. Polls suggest gains for Eurosceptics and populists, raising uncertainties about their influence on EU policymaking, including media regulation and support for independent press. As in the United States, millions of euros in funding  now earmarked for support of independent media and journalism could be jeopardized.

India: Will the Democratic Decline Continue?

India, the world’s most populous democracy, is facing the prospect of President Narendra Modi securing a third consecutive term. The last few years of his reign have been marked by ongoing campaigns against the Muslim minority as well as numerous attacks on critics and news media, including tax raids, arrests of journalists, and targeting them with the Pegasus spyware. Modi’s government has curbed press freedom through legislation and regulation, giving the government increasing control over the information space. In elections, he will face a coalition of 28 parties, led by Rahul Gandhi.

Romania: Surge of the Far-Right

Romania is bracing itself for presidential and parliamentary elections amidst the rise of the far-right party AUR, which has surpassed 20% in recent polls. AUR is characterized by Christian fundamentalism, sovereignism, and anti-scientific sentiments. The sympathy of AUR’s leader George Simion towards Hungary’s Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party, as well as the shared disinformation narratives between the two parties, hint at the potential direction Romania may take with Simion in charge. According to data from local journalists, AUR is believed to have strong financial backing from Russia. Its narrative is blatantly supportive of Russia and its war against Ukraine. AUR’s win is expected to have negative consequences on the independent media in Romania. The party has been building its own media in recent years and has been lashing out against critical journalists. AUR is also known as one of the country’s main sources of disinformation.

Austria: Far-Right Resurgence

Austrians will also head to the polls this year, and the parliamentary elections may bolster far-right populist parties, according to analysts. The Freedom Party (FPÖ) was shaken by the so-called Ibiza scandal four years ago. The party’s President, Heinz-Christian Strache, was recorded talking about corrupt political practices, including references to their wish to build a media landscape like Viktor Orban did. Now, the FPÖ is the most popular party in the country, signaling potential challenges for media freedom in Austria.

Mexico: Disinformation on the Rise

Mexico is poised to witness a historic moment in June, as it is likely to elect its first female president. Analysts describe Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate of the ruling party, as less populist than the current president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. However, concerns have arisen over online, state-sponsored disinformation targeting the opposition candidate, Xochitl Galvez, as well as the electoral authority. During Lopez Obrador’s regime, media outlets, especially state-controlled ones, saw their independence dwindling as a result of attacks and interference with their editorial agenda.

The outcome of these elections will have a significant influence on media freedom in the respective countries, with some of them expected to have worldwide implications as well. The media will also be scrutinized during the campaigns as elections are expected to be heavily influenced by both traditional and social media. While numerous studies focus on social media content during election periods, less attention is given to the influence of the media market’s structural conditions on election fairness and outcomes. Therefore, the Media and Journalism Research Center has launched a new project focusing on media ownership and political finance, and it will collect data about media, spending, and political parties in around 40 countries in 2024. The research will be used to issue a comparative study in 2025, yet some of the data will be shared in the upcoming JFF newsletters.